爱语导读:气候变暖导致海平面上升，然而南极洲冰川消融占了多少比重？一起来看最新研究。
Global sea levels could rise by more than double the current best estimate, according to a new analysis of climate change in Antarctica.
据南极洲气候变化最新研究显示，全球海平面上升将是当前最保守估计量的2倍以上。
The modelling assessment says that Antarctic melting alone could contribute more than a metre to sea level by the end of this century.
模型评估显示，到本世纪末，仅南极洲冰川融化就将使海平面上升1米以上。
By 2500, according to the study, the same source could cause levels across the world to rise by 13m.
该研究称，到2500年，南极洲冰川融化将使全球海平面上升13米。
The authors say that rapid cuts in carbon emissions could limit this risk.
作者称迅速削减碳排放可有效抑制这种风险。
Competing ideas
争论之声
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that, without any restrictions on carbon emissions, the seas around the world likely rise by up to 98cm by 2100.
2013年，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预计，若碳排放不加限制，到2100年全球海平面将上升98cm。
However, the IPCC estimates contained a minimum contribution from Antarctica.
然而，IPCC的预估将南极洲融化的影响最小化了。
Other analyses since then have projected bigger increases, with a recent study suggesting that the oceans were rising faster than at any time in the past 2,800 years and by 2100 they could be up to 1.31m higher.
自那时起涌现了更多的相关分析。最近一项调查研究表明，海平面高度在过去2800年里以前所未有的速度增长，到2100年可能升高1.31米。
The exact level of Antarctica’s impact on these projections has been vigorously debated. Late last year, a research paper suggested that projections of a contribution of a metre or more were not plausible.
就南极洲对海平面升高究竟有多大影响的争论一直很激烈。去年年底一份研究报告称，预测南极洲对海平面的影响或超过1米的说法是不可信的。
But this new study argues that by 2100 the world could see 1.14m of sea-level rise from Antarctica alone.
但这项新研究称，到2100年全球海平面仅因为南极洲影响就将升高1.14米。
Additions to the model
模型补充
The scientists say that their model is able to provide a more accurate prediction because it incorporates the impacts of some physical processes for the first time.
科学家说他们的模型能提供更加准确的预测，因为该模型首次包含了一些物理过程的影响。
While other models have focussed on the impact of warmer waters melting the ice shelves from below, this new study also includes the effect of surface melt-water and rain trickling down from above and fracturing supporting ice, hastening its slide to the sea.
其他模型关注的是温度升高的海水自下而上融化冰架，而这项新研究同时考虑了表面融化的影响-水和雨自上而下滴落，以及支撑破碎的冰块会滑入海中。
The model also calculates the impact of the disintegration of floating ice shelves. If this happens, it will reveal walls of ice so tall that they cannot support their own weight.
该模型还计算了漂浮冰架瓦解造成的影响。冰架如果瓦解，将露出冰墙，而冰墙高度太大，抵御不了自身重力影响。
The scientists involved expect that these extra factors will kick in over the coming decades, as warming from the atmosphere (not just from warmer waters below) becomes the dominant driver of ice loss.
相关科学家预计，接下来的几十年中这些额外因素的影响将会加大，因为大气温度的升高（不仅仅从底部海水温度升高）将会成为冰川融化的主导因素。
“One reason that other models didn’t include the atmospheric warming is because it hasn’t started to happen just yet,” said co-author Dr David Pollard from Penn State University, US.
“其他模型没有考虑大气变暖的原因之一是目前为止该情况还尚未发生。”共同作者宾夕法尼亚州立大学大卫波拉德博士说。
“In Antarctica, around the edges at sea level, it’s just beginning to get up to the melt point in summer.
“在南极洲，海平面在夏天刚好达到熔点。”
“With that warming, the flanks of Antarctica will start to melt drastically in about 50 to 100 years – and then it will start to kick in according to our model.”
“随着温度升高，在50至100年内，南极洲侧陆将开始大面积融化-根据我们的模型，那时它将占据主导地位。”
The authors believe that they have demonstrated the accuracy of the new model by correctly replicating sea-level rise in warm periods, millions of years into the past.
作者认为，通过正确模拟过去数百万年间“暖期”海平面上升，他们已经论证了新模型的准确性。
“Recently, we looked at the long-standing problem posed by geological evidence that suggests sea level rose dramatically in the past, possibly up to 10 to 20 metres around 3 million years ago, in the Pliocene,” said Dr Pollard.
“最近，我们研究了由地质依据提出的存在已久的问题-海平面在过去曾大幅上升，比300万年前“上新世”升高了10-20米。”波拉德博士说。
“Existing models couldn’t simulate enough ice-sheet melting to explain that.”
“已有模型已无法模拟这么多的冰盖融化来解释这一点。”
Right questions’
正确的问题
If the world continues to emit “business as usual” levels of carbon dioxide over the coming decades, the scientists argue that sea-level rise will be double what has already been estimated for the coming 100 years.
在接下来的几十年内，如果全球持续“一如往常”地排放二氧化碳，科学家预计海平面升高量将是原预计100年后升高量的2倍。
“If these processes do kick in and they end up being as important as we think that they could be, then they really do have a big impact,” said Prof Robert DeConto from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
“如果这些过程真的发生，并且最终发展成我们想象的程度，那它们的影响真的非常巨大。”艾摩斯特市马萨诸塞大学的罗伯特迪康特教授说。
“West Antarctica is responding very soon in these simulations and that ends up having a big impact on North America in particular.”
“西南极洲最先印证了这些模拟，而这对北美洲有着巨大的影响。”
Other researchers have praised the development of the new model for including impacts such as surface melt water and ice-cliff collapse, but they are uncertain about the conclusions.
其他研究者赞扬了新模型的发展，因为它考虑了更多的因素，如表面融化雪水以及冰山崩塌，但他们对结论表示怀疑。
“I have no doubt that on a century to millennia timescale, warming will make these processes significant in Antarctica, as well as Greenland, and drive a very significant Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise,” commented Prof David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey.
“我从不怀疑本世纪直至新千年，气候变暖将使南极洲这些进程加速，包括格陵兰岛，从而使得南极洲冰川融化对海平面上升的影响加剧。”英国南极调查局大卫沃恩教授说。
“The big question for me is, how soon could this all begin, and could it be early enough to drive substantially higher sea levels by 2100? I’m not sure, but these guys are definitely asking the right questions.”
“对我而言最大的问题是，这一切最快什么时候开始，开始时间是否足够早使得2100年海平面大幅上升？我不确定，但这些研究者们确实提出了正确的问题。”
The authors believe that there is “good news” in their report. If global emissions of carbon are curtailed significantly then the extra factors that substantially boost Antarctic melting will be avoided.
作者相信这份报道中还是有“好消息”的。如果全球碳排放大幅减小，这些造成南极洲消融的额外因素将得以避免。
Seas will continue to rise, but not at the runaway rates suggested by this paper, which has been published in the journal Nature.
海平面将持续上升，但不是以这篇发表在《自然》杂志中的论文阐述的那样以失控的速度上升。
来源:BBC
【听歌学英语】吧，那嗓音甜美的美女主播逐句讲解歌词，听着唱着读着原汁原味的英文歌曲，英文歌学会了不少，英语水平自然也是蹭蹭涨啊！–订阅微信公众号：听歌学英语(iyubasong)手机下载听歌学英语app在线听更多原版音乐和解说！
